Authors: Adam Geršl, Pervin Dadashova, Yuliya Bazhenova, Anatolii Hlazunov, Danylo Krasovytskyi.
Abstract: This study introduces the financial cycle index as a means to identify the position of the Ukrainian economy in the financial cycle. The index encompasses 16 indicators aggregated into four subindices that capture cyclical systemic risks stemming from the immoderate debt burden of the private sector, the easing of lending conditions, excessive growth of real estate prices, and macroeconomic imbalances. This financial cycle measure can be used as one of a number of guidelines when making policy decisions on the use of countercyclical prudential instruments to prevent the accumulation of cyclical systemic risks and to stabilize the financial system in a timely manner.
Cite as: Geršl, A., Dadashova, P., Bazhenova, Y., Hlazunov, A., Krasovytskyi, D. (2025). The Financial Cycle Index of Ukraine. NBU Working Papers, 1/2025. Kyiv: National Bank of Ukraine.
